All Change Please

Transition Towns are widely touted as the next “big thing” on the green scene, so I was happy to brave the pouring rain and floods of a January evening to attend a talk by Ben Brangwyn, co-founder of the Transition Network.

Ben had also been soaked on his way to the talk, having arrived by train and bike – it was good to see someone practice what he preaches, as I had feared he might arrive by car. He treated the audience to a slick Powerpoint presentation, starting with an introduction to the concept of Peak Oil, using some impressive graphs, and explaining that the discovery of new oil fields peaked years ago, and production globally is on a plateau before it begins to fall. This process of declining production is already rapidly underway in the US and the UK, making us increasingly reliant on uncertain supplies of imported oil from volatile regions of the world. Ben highlighted our dependence on oil for agriculture and transport in particular, and gave the examples of North Korea, Cuba and the UK’s 2000 fuel crisis to show what can happen when the oil runs out. North Korea is a tragic story of starvation and malnutrition following the collapse of the USSR, its sponsor. Cuba is a happier story, having adapted to become self-sufficient in food production, with people returning to the land. The UK was brought to its knees in 2000 when lorry drivers blockaded the refineries. The supermarket “just in time” supply chain nearly broke down, and we had panic buying that nearly led to rationing.

Ben’s talk then covered the issue of climate change, including some dramatic slides showing retreating glaciers. He then drew the links between Peak Oil and climate change, and began his advocacy of a planned energy descent to prepare us for the coming energy crisis, through Transition Towns adapting to improve their resilience.

We were treated to the “Seven Buts”, not a version of the Fully Monty, but the seven reasons people give for not getting involved, from a fear of upsetting others, to a feeling that we are already too late. Ben also ran through the twelve steps towns usually need to follow to adopt the transition framework.

The audience was very receptive as Ben was largely preaching to the converted, a mixture of environmentalists, greens, and people from the development/Fairtrade movement. Ben did encounter some good-natured criticism from one member of the audience who dismissed local production for local need as hopelessly inefficient, and accused Ben of having a hidden agenda for social change, and espousing 17th Century Puritanism. Ben readily admitted that he is a deep green, an “anarcho-primitivist”, probably more willing to go without bananas and mangoes than other people. There was some concern elsewhere in the audience, about the impact on developing nations if we switch to a more local system of agriculture.

Overall the talk was a resounding success, although converting talk into action requires a huge mobilisation of the community, and the need to break out of the green ghetto, to reach the person in the street. Most of what Ben spoke about was just common sense, and not the wacky New Age joss-sticks and crystals approach sometimes associated with Totnes, the first Transition Town and home to the Transition Network. The only slightly wacky idea was that Totnes is aiming to become the nut-tree capital of the UK, which risks the Sun headline that they are a bunch of “nutters”. This did give rise to an hilarious discussion about what would be done about squirrels, and how to cook them, perhaps not so hilarious for the squirrels.

The idea of Transition Towns is catching on fast, with over thirty UK towns already signed up, and others around the world. In one town the Chief Executive of the County Council is on the steering group, so readily are the ideas being accepted, and the Network is pushing against an open door, as people are so worried by climate change.

Ben and Rob Hopkins who co-founded the Transition Network, will have their work cut out, as more and more towns become interested, and they are already training others to spread the word. Watch out for the New Years’ Honours in a few years time, when their work gains the recognition it deserves.

Further reading:

Transition Towns

http://www.transitionstowns.org - the homepage of the Transition Towns Network, based on a Wiki

that some of the Transition Towns use to communicate with residents and each other.

http://www.transitiontowns.org/TransitionNetwork - information about the Transition Network,

a charity set up to promote the concept of transition towns

http://www.transitiontowns.org/TransitionNetwork/Mulling - listing of communities that are considering the possibility

of adopting/adapting the transition model for themselves

http://www.transitiontowns.org/TransitionNetwork/Newsletter - including details of new transition training courses

http://transitionculture.org/ - Rob Hopkin's blog

Peak Oil

www.peakoil.net

www.energybulletin.net/primer.php - a Peak Oil information site

www.energybulletin.net - news on energy issues

www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf - the Hirsch report,

produced for the US government in 2005. A call to urgent action to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil.

Robert Heinberg, author of “The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies”,

  “Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World”, and “The Oil Depletion Protocol : A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse”

Climate change

http://www.ipcc.ch/ -The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

?http://www.realclimate.org  commentary by working climate scientists on breaking climate news stories

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre The Hadley Centre – the Met Office’s bureau for researching the potential effects of Climate Change.